Due to the introduction of CBAM, European buyers are shifting their focus to cast iron from Brazil

In December 2025, prices for Brazilian pig iron fluctuated: they ranged from $400 to $408/t FOB, while producers sought higher prices, quoting $410 to $420/t (FOB). This was due to growing demand from Europe and the expected increase in scrap prices in January.

The global pig iron market is assessing the new CBAM regulation in Europe, which may change pig iron export and import flows for suppliers from Brazil and Ukraine, as well as for European and American consumers.

At the same time, pig iron exports from Brazil continued to decline. In December, they fell by 23% month-on-month to 273,000 tons after falling by 23% month-on-month in November. The main reason for the decline was a 27% month-on-month reduction in exports to the US to 211,000 tons at a price of $392/ton on FOB terms. At the same time, Brazilian pig iron exports grew by 7.8% y/y over the past year to 4 million tons at an average price of $412/ton.

At the same time, according to the Brazilian Steelmakers Association (IAB), pig iron production in Brazil is declining: in November, output amounted to 2.2 million tons, which is 4.9% less than in October. Over the 11 months, production decreased by 1.1% y/y – to 24 million tons.

European buyers, especially from Italy, sought to purchase more Brazilian pig iron ahead of the introduction of CBAM in early 2026 and the ban on pig iron from Russia. In December, Brazil supplied 60,000 tons of pig iron to Europe at $389/ton on FOB terms.

According to Kallanish, CBAM payments for Brazilian pig iron turned out to be lower than expected. As a result, Brazil will become the main supplier of cast iron to Italy from January 2026. In November–December, Italy mainly imported Ukrainian cast iron at $430/t on CFR Italy terms, as well as several large shipments from Brazil on the same terms.

On the Black Sea pig iron market, average prices (on a Black Sea FOB basis) stabilized at $313/t in October–December. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), pig iron imports to Turkey in October increased by 4% y/y – to 190,000 t. In January–October, Turkey’s pig iron imports increased by 73% y/y – to 1.9 million tons. Russia not only more than doubled its supplies but also took the leading position (over 75% of imports) with 1.45 million tons.

Against the backdrop of growing imports, Turkey’s own pig iron production is declining. According to WorldSteel, output fell by 7% y/y – to 8.8 million tons in January–November. At the same time, production in November grew by 7% y/y for the fourth month in a row, reaching 870,000 tons.

Prices for pig iron remained stable in other regional markets. Domestic prices for pig iron in China (including 13% VAT) remained at $408/t for most of the month. According to Metallplace, prices for pig iron on the Indian market remained stable at $340/t in December.

As previously reported, global pig iron production in January–November 2025 decreased by 1.5% compared to the same period last year, to 1.26 billion tons. The largest pig iron producing countries for the period were China with 774.05 million tons (-2.3% y/y), India with 140.8 million tons (+6.7% y/y), and Japan with 53.63 million tons (-4% y/y).